Trump, TikTok, and Tariffs: What a new presidency means for American-Taiwanese relations and Taiwan’s independence

By: Cory Voskanian

Photo by GETTY IMAGES

With a new administration being ushered into the White House and the flurry of executive orders that have followed, very few facets of political life seem set in stone. Specifically, Taiwan’s cultural identity is no exception to this feeling of uncertainty caused by the rapid succession of legislation spearheaded by President Donald Trump. With fears of Chinese influence leading to the short-lived American TikTok ban, the impact of the app over a smaller, geographically closer nation must also be taken into account. If TikTok is alleged to host such a large amount of Chinese propaganda, an American purchase of the company would mitigate its role in the lives of Taiwanese youth. Additionally, with Trump proposing tariffs that would greatly hinder the success of Taiwan’s computer chip exports, Taiwan is more vulnerable than ever to Chinese invasion. 

 In the post World War II era, relations between China and Taiwan have been quite contentious, and a “One China” model that would have the nations operate as one has been repeatedly emphasized by Chinese officials (Maizland & Fong, 2025). Moreover, recent conversations between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump show that this sentiment still remains staunch. Specifically, Xi cautions against further American involvement in sectors that impact China’s “core interests,” particularly mentioning Taiwanese sovereignty (Chiacu et al., 2025). While TikTok’s influence on American youth has been well documented, it still retains its subtle omnipresence over the youth of Taiwan. Studies have noted that Taiwanese users are prone to adopt Chinese slang after using the app, and algorithms of dancing and comedy videos have morphed into soft political content (Hille, 2025). Additionally, the influences of TikTok in Taiwan are actively harming the upcoming generations' sense of nationalism. Fewer members of the 20-24 age range are identifying as culturally Taiwanese as opposed to identifying as Mainlander Chinese, and Taiwanese TikTok users reported feeling less economically satisfied and politically efficacious than Taiwanese citizens who didn’t use the app (Hille, 2025).  With diminishing nationalism in mind, Trump’s firm stance on pushing TikTok under American control poses further uncertainty regarding Taiwanese independence. His unwavering commitment to making a “worthwhile” offer to China for possession of the app poses a large question about the amount of money he considers necessary to accomplish this task (Pequeño IV & Roeloffs, 2025). As the deadline to buy TikTok has been once again extended, “many moguls and businesses have thrown their hats in the ring for a chance to purchase the social media platform—a bid that could be as much as $50 billion” (Schneid, 2025). If this sale is to come to fruition, it would furnish ByteDance, a Chinese company, with a sum equivalent to 6.5% of Taiwan’s 2024 GDP (World Bank, 2025). Although ByteDance is a private company, China is legally entitled to a “golden share” of one of its key subsidiaries (He, 2024). With the funds that are derived from this share, this may be just the stimulus needed to initiate the invasion of Taiwan.

Following this social media catalyzed decline in patriotism, Trump’s recent executive orders placing tariffs on Taiwan’s semiconductor industry may spell trouble for the nation. Despite Taiwanese officials noting their existing mutually beneficial relationship with the United States regarding semiconductors and computer chips, it seems Trump is steadfast in his desires to eliminate the offshoring of chip manufacturing (De Vynck & Timsit, 2025). Contextualizing the scope of the disruption these semiconductor tariffs may cause is the fact that the machinery and electronics industry comprised 64.2% of all Taiwanese exports in 2022. Additionally, in 2022, the Taiwanese semiconductor industry alone accounted for 60% of the industry’s global revenue (Crotty, 2024). Considering Taiwan derives so much of its financial strength from its computer chip production, there is no doubt that such weighty tariffs could negatively impact their currently stable economy. In fact, figures report that even “a 10 percent tariff increase would likely reduce Taiwan's GDP by 0.75 percent, equivalent to NT$198.6 billion (about US$6 billion)”, with an even greater loss in GDP being incurred if Taiwanese exporters absorb all tariff costs or if the tariff increase is greater than 10 percent (Fair Winds Foundation, 2025). The nation’s success in computer chip production had previously created a sort of “silicon shield” against Chinese invasion; one international trade expert notes how “Taiwan’s economic security depends heavily on its leadership in semiconductor manufacturing…I think that Trump’s tariff threats make this strategy much more complicated. For instance, Taiwan could face pressure to make concessions” (France-Presse, 2025). If these raised tariffs reach the implementation stage, Taiwan would lose its importance in various global supply chains, and would no longer be protected by its economic outputs. 

The patriotism of one country has adverse effects on the patriotism of another. In light of the executive orders surrounding the TikTok ban and semiconductor tariffs, Trump may be unintentionally severing a bond with a long-time ally. Combating a generation of young people with an increasing cultural distance has already proven difficult for Taiwan, and pairing this alongside an obstruction of their largest economic sector may leave them in an unprotected position to which China could take advantage of.

The views expressed in this publication are the authors' own and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Rice Journal of Public Policy, its staff, or its Editorial Board.\