After being elected president of México in 2018, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) announced the development of the Tren Maya (Mayan Train), branding it as a “cultural” and “tourist” train aimed to economically develop the poorer Southeastern region of the country. This initiative is part of Obrador’s “Fourth Transformation” proposal to prioritize decreasing corruption, growing the economy, and reducing poverty (Salinas-León 2019). Tren Maya promises to connect tourist attractions from Yucatán, Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Campeche with 1,525 kilometers of track, boosting tourism and cargo transfers (Harvard International Review 2023). With the project entirely built in México, it is marketed for its ability to reduce poverty and stimulate the economy. Tren Maya is projected to create over a million jobs at a time when they are most needed, as poverty rates in Yucatán have risen over the last few years (Harvard International Review 2023). Construction on the Tren Maya began in 2020 with the intention of being fully operational by February 2024; this ambitious timeline arises from AMLO’s desire to finish the project before the Presidential elections in early June (Abi-Habib 2022). Despite the economic benefits, the Tren Maya’s rapid construction raises concerns including increased reliance on the military to implement the project, encroachment on the indigenous population, and significant environmental risks.
Concerns over Militarization
México’s unconstitutional turn towards militarization has been escalating since the presidency of Felipe Calderón in 2006, and it has accelerated under AMLO’s presidency, with tasks typically left to civilian authorities being assigned to the armed forces instead (Berg and Polo 2023). An increased role of the military increases its political influence while weakening public trust in public security by assigning them tasks they are not fit for and blurring lines of responsibility between the military and the civilian government (Berg and Polo 2023). The Mexican constitution, aware of the dangers of militarism, is adamant on limiting the military’s role during peacetime (Berg and Polo 2023). México has a complicated history with its military, as the War on Drugs has led to disappearances, human rights violations, sexual violence, arbitrary detentions, and illegal executions (Godoy 2023).
In September of 2023, AMLO transferred the control of Tren Maya from the civilian National Tourism Fund to the military (Godoy 2023). To defend this transfer of power, AMLO has argued that it will reduce corruption, although the military’s efficiency in speeding up the building process certainly played a role in the decision (Godoy 2023). AMLO’s rushing of the construction of Tren Maya for the 2024 election has continued the dangerous trend of transferring power from civil servants to a military ill-suited to this type of work, whose past brings up concerns for the future of the train and the treatment of indigenous peoples (Baker Institute 2024).
Environmental and Indigenous Issues
Tren Maya has additionally reduced the Mayan indigenous identity to a tourist attraction, as Mayans have not been properly consulted and informed of the plans (CE Noticias Financieras 2022). In Maxcanú and Kimbilá, there is documentation of natives being dispossessed of property without being given the full information, as economic promises were used to convince farmers to sell land; the military has thus perpetrated fraud and illegal seizure of land against one of the most vulnerable groups in the country (Maturano 2022). International frameworks such as the International Labor Organization (ILO) Convention 169, which states that governments must cooperate with indigenous peoples when policies affect them, have been largely ignored. In response, Mayan communities have teamed up to file lawsuits against the state for failures to obtain Mayan consent concerning Tren Maya (CE Noticias Financieras 2022-2023). The government should prioritize investing in these vulnerable communities rather than attempting to steamroll them.
Tren Maya’s construction is leading the military to pressure indigenous groups while also destroying the natural environment. To speed the assembly along, the government compromised its original goals of remaining environmentally conscious––an example being the promise that “not a single tree” would be chopped down (Abi-Habib 2022). However, observers are now estimating that the second-largest jungle in the Americas has lost over 10 million trees as a result of Tren Maya (Morris 2023). This environmental devastation is largely a result of major changes in original plans.
Water Supply Concerns
One such change is that although the train was originally planned alongside the highway, the train’s route was shifted inland over the heart of Sac Atun, without research on the potential damages (Verhoeven n.d.). Sac Atun is the largest underwater cave system in the world, and it makes up just a small part of the Yucatán peninsula’s 10,000 cenotes (Kishwari 2023). This move was met with protest from the scientific community, with AMLO responding that the benefits of rapid train construction outweighed the costs of environmental damages, which include destruction of wildlife and natural landscape, namely the unique presence of cenotes, natural sinkholes exposing groundwater (Verhoeven n.d.). The cenotes compose an aquifer that provides fresh water for 5 million people in Southeast México (Chabin 2023). The pollution of the water supply is a massive concern considering that CONAGUA, México’s national water authority, has announced that the region is on track to experience a water crisis in around 14-15 years (Kishwari 2023). The people who will be most hurt by accelerated water scarcity are the indigenous people living in the area, many of whom revere the land and assign religious value to the cenotes.
The looming water crisis underscores a broader pattern with the construction of Tren Maya: it caters to visitors at the expense of local communities. Pollution of the cenotes endangers the water supply for an entire region, especially with the hasty planning. The cave system is made of limestone, an unstable foundation for Tren Maya, especially in areas where the limestone may only be a few feet thick and tasked with holding 200-ton trains packed with cargo (NBC 2022). The army has resorted to filling certain caves for stability, but engineers expressed concerns over the ill-considered construction plans, drawing comparisons to the México City metro collapse in 2021 (Al-Habib 2022; NBC 2022). A crash would be especially devastating considering that the leading cargo client of Tren Maya is México’s national oil company, furthering risks of contamination (Chabin 2023). Additionally, the cenotes are composed of permeable limestone, meaning that water comes into direct contact with the surface (Kishwari 2023; Chabin 2023). The train was expected to be 100% electric, but it has since turned towards diesel-powered engines. There have already been reports of fuel remains and turbidity in the water (Martínez 2023). There is a general lack of information about the project, given that AMLO’s national security decree and use of the military have allowed the government to evade permits, surveys, and obligations to release public information (Chabin 2023).
Conclusion
The economic and political arguments in favor of Tren Maya may seem logical at first glance, however, further analysis reveals the true ecological and moral failures that come as a result of poor planning. The decision to complete Tren Maya before the 2024 elections, when engineers said that the project would need 15 years to complete, has caused the project to go three times over budget, clocking in at almost $30 billion (Garrison 2023). It has also resulted in the project taking on unnecessary risks and sacrifices including militarization and water contamination. Water scarcity has been a preexisting concern in vulnerable areas which will only worsen as a result of Tren Maya. The issue is also heavily tied to the privileging of the tourist industry and business interests (Chabin 2023). Prioritizing funding in areas such as education and infrastructure, preserving necessities such as water security, and protecting natural and cultural resources are alternative ways to invest in rural communities. When implementing large scale projects such as Tren Maya that can have such severe impacts, politicians should favor a systematic approach instead of a rush for political capital. AMLO’s Tren Maya is the perfect example, where an attempt to garner support through a poorly-planned infrastructural development has created a world of problems.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Rice Journal of Public Policy, its staff, or its Editorial Board.
The Mayan Train Project: A Catalyst for Controversies and Public Debates. (2023, June 5). Harvard International Review. https://hir.harvard.edu/the-mayan-train/
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