The Taiwan Strait needs to be cooled off

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait have escalated dramatically. In August, the abrupt visit made by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has struck nerves across China, the U.S., and Taiwan. Beijing’s subsequent reaction to intensify military exercises encircling the island further brought up global attention for possible warfare. Merely a month later, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee approved the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 with overwhelming bipartisan support, which explicitly provides military support and sanction packages in contingency to a Chinese invasion (117th Congress). The proposition of this new act is in sharp contrast with the previous U.S. agenda of strategic ambiguity towards Taiwan policy (CMG 2022), which depicted a rather vague commitment to defend the island from the invasion of the Chinese government. If the act is passed by the Congress, it would irritate the Chinese government and potentially result in a Fourth Taiwan Strait crisis, or even a hot war. As cross-strait relations exacerbate, it is necessary that the United States recalibrates the direction of its Taiwan policy to avoid irreparable harm.

Ever since the normalization of Sino-US relations, the United States has maintained an ambiguous policy approach as a means to facilitate peace keeping and ensure stability across the Taiwan Strait (Clarke 2021). However, the policy direction remains largely unchanged, considering the terms of U.S. military and security provisions to Taiwan. In contrast to the U.S. policy of strategic ambiguity, China executed a straightforward and irreconcilable agenda dictating that Taiwan must be reunified, even at the cost of military action. The reunification is embedded in the Chinese constitution (Song 2018) and legitimized by the architecture of “One Country, Two Systems,” which allows Taiwan to retain its economic and social systems, government, and even military in return for its acknowledgement as being a part of China. Historically, the ambiguity of the Taiwan policy has shielded the U.S. from direct involvement with China-Taiwan tensions and enabled Washington to maintain a stable relationship with Beijing without touching the redline. However, in recent years, Beijing has grown more militant and irritable as economic development and the political system began to tumble. As a result, if Washington continues its policy of strategic ambiguity, it may backfire. Therefore, it must take a clear stance in addressing the Taiwan issue.

The domestic political environment in China has become anxious as economic development stalled in the past 5 years. For almost three decades, Beijing has firmly relied upon the belief that so long as economic development in mainland China continues to grow, economic prosperity will eventually incentivize Taiwan to willingly return to China. In light of such belief, China has heavily emphasized its economic achievements in its external propaganda. However, stagnant economic growth has caused the rhetoric to shift towards an almost exclusive focus on nationalism (Culver 2022). This transition to the overreaching appeal of nationalistic sentiment sends out two dangerous signals: it shows Beijing’s diminishing certainty of peaceful reunification of Taiwan and indicates Beijing’s determination to return Taiwan at all costs, including a resort to military invasion.

The drastic political turmoil that occurred in Hong Kong in 2019 serves as evidence of the diminishing possibility of peaceful unification. The enactment of the National Security Law substantially impaired the autonomy of Hong Kong’s administration and infringed upon human rights with its vague definition of national security threats (Datt 2021). As a result, the legitimacy of “One country, two systems” in relation to Taiwan was extensively questioned by the international community. As Beijing continues to centralize its authority through power politics and encroach on the constitutionality of “One country, two systems,” the chance of peaceful unification only drifts farther away.

In 2022, China continues to increase tensions and harden the red line as Xi marches to his unprecedented third term of presidency. During Nancy Pelosi’s diplomatic visit to Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army conducted rigorous military drills less than 20 kilometers away from Taiwan’s shores, a direct invasion of their territorial waters (Hioe 2022). These military exercises have received numerous international condemnations. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described it as an overreaction and a “significant escalation” (Al Jazeera 2022). This provocative military action has fostered substantial instabilities across the strait, instigating crises that would severely challenge the international order. Following the military drills, the Chinese government published the third version of a white paper on the Taiwan issue entitled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era.” This newest version deleted the promise of allowing Taiwan to maintain its current government and military system (Du 2022). The erasure of this promise directly undermines the foundation of “One country two systems,” which predicates on the guarantee of high autonomy and the absence of military interference (Central Government 2013). As the most fundamental principle of the architecture was removed, it is clear that Xi Jinping may be gearing up for potential military action.

As the Taiwan Strait turns into a powder keg, the United States must avoid tiggering the bomb; the proposed Taiwan Policy Act will be an overstep. As Chinese social and economic development continues to stagnate, the authoritarian regime will encounter more instability to which it must find an excuse to lash out, and instigating warfare will be one of its resorts. Therefore, the U.S. should not bolster any form of military actions across the strait to irritate the regime and foment unwanted violence. As a result, the new Taiwan Policy Act must be rectified. The provision of extensive military deterrence must be paired with the promise that China will not suffer catastrophic loss if it refrains from military action, and with the insistence on open and peaceful negotiations.

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References

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Central Government 中央人民政府. 和平统一·一国两制, 2013. http://www.gov.cn/test/2005-07/29/content_18285.htm.

Clarke, Michael. “Why 'Strategic Ambiguity' Trumps 'Strategic Clarity' on Taiwan.” Royal United Services Institute, November 24, 2021. https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/why-strategic-ambiguity-trumps-strategic-clarity-taiwan.

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Datt, Angeli. “The Impact of the National Security Law on Media and Internet Freedom in Hong Kong.” Freedom House, 2021. https://freedomhouse.org/article/impact-national-security-law-media-and-internet-freedom-hong-kong.

Du, Zongxi. “中共二十大： 習近平連任後的對台政策: DW: 08.09.2022.” DW.COM, 2022. https://www.dw.com/zh/%E4%B8%AD%E5%85%B1%E4%BA%8C%E5%8D%81%E5%A4%A7-%E7%BF%92%E8%BF%91%E5%B9%B3%E9%80%A3%E4%BB%BB%E5%BE%8C%E7%9A%84%E5%B0%8D%E5%8F%B0%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96/a-63051736.

Hioe, Brian. “Following China's Military Drills, Taiwan Settles into New Normal.” – The Diplomat. for The Diplomat, August 16, 2022. https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/following-chinas-military-drills-taiwan-settles-into-new-normal/.

Song, Yan. “中华人民共和国宪法.” 中华人民共和国宪法_国情相关_中国政府网. Accessed November 28, 2022. http://www.gov.cn/guoqing/2018-03/22/content_5276318.htm.

S. 4428 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 | Congress.gov | Library of Congress.