How America is Complicit in the World's Largest Humanitarian Crisis

Since 2015, Yemen, the poorest country in the Arab world, has been racked by a brutal civil war between the Houthi rebels and the internationally-recognized government of Yemen. The conflict is a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and its allies, who have led a brutal intervention in support of Yemen’s government and Iran, who has financed and armed the rebels (Al Jazeera 2015). Currently, over 20 million of the country’s 29 million people are food insecure and the death toll has topped 100,000, more than 12,000 of which are civilian casualties (The United Nations 2020, Beaumont 2019). A lack of policy change by those in the region and by those arming the warring parties ensures the war will continue. No matter how much aid the United Nations sends to Yemen, the country cannot begin to rebuild until the war ends. Although the situation seems hopeless, the United States government has the power to substantially reduce the violence and shift the two factions towards diplomacy. The United States must end its arms sales and military aid to the Saudi coalition to prevent the brutal violence and mass suffering from persisting.

The Saudi coalition’s intervention in Yemen has been nothing short of merciless. Since 2015, the Saudis have conducted over 21,000 air strikes, which have not only targeted enemy military bases and personnel, but civilian infrastructure too. Saudi airstrikes have hit school buses, villages, and hospitals and killed thousands of people. In 2018, 48% of airstrikes hit civilians, which was triple the number that hit military sites (“Yemen Data Project” 2020).

The Royal Saudi Air Force has thus become an essential component of the Saudi coalition’s ruthless campaign in Yemen, and the United States is complicit in the violence. Of the 365 combat-capable warplanes in the Saudi Air Force, over two-thirds are of US origin, while overall, 60% of Saudi arms deliveries come from the United States (McCarthy 2018, Caverley 2018). Although the warplanes were already purchased, the Saudis cannot continue operating them without a daily supply of American maintenance, munitions, and logistical support, which American contractors provide. In fact, a 2018 study by the Brookings Institute found that if the United States halted the sale of spare parts alone to the Saudi Air Force today, the majority of their planes would be grounded by tomorrow morning, crippling their capacity for airstrikes (Abo Alasrar, Rand, and Riedel 2018). On the contrary, it could be argued that if the United States cut its sale of arms, Saudi Arabia would turn to other arms exporters like Russia or China, who would jump at the opportunity to fill the gap. However, Pennsylvania State University professor Terrence Guay noted in his study of Saudi arms sales that because Saudi Arabia has used American arms systems for so long, they have become “locked in” on American technology, meaning that the costs of switching to a different supplier are too high in the short run and could take decades, even for a country as oil-rich as Saudi Arabia. This is because the cost of switching suppliers include the retraining of military personnel on new equipment, the replacement of spare parts, and the implementation of sweeping operational changes (Guay 2018). Additionally, other suppliers lack the sophisticated military technology and defense export industries that Saudi Arabia desires. Indeed, MIT research scientist Jonathan Caverley found that neither Russia nor China has the capacity to build, let alone export, next generation aircraft and the sophisticated defense systems that Saudi Arabia desires and the United States has provided (Caverley 2018). This situation is a critical indication of the dependence of Saudi Arabia’s military on the United States, and the failure of the Obama and Trump administrations to take meaningful action to support the basic rights and livelihood of the Yemeni people.

Additionally, a move to block arms sales could change the strategic posture of both Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels in favor of negotiation. Analysts have noted two critical facts about the Saudi strategy. The first is that the Saudis have interpreted the American policy of ambivalence towards their intervention in Yemen as an indication that the United States does not care about the country, allowing the coalition to act however they deem necessary (Byman 2018). American arms transfers have eased pressure on the Saudi coalition to come to the table and agree to a ceasefire. Secondly, the possession of American arms gives the Saudi government a sense of security and a belief that they can still crush the rebels over time, removing their incentive to pursue negotiations (Bazzi 2018). Ending arms sales is thus absolutely critical, as it would place American pressure on the Saudi regime and remove the sense of security that has deterred them from progressing in negotiations. On the other side, the Houthi rebels stated in 2018 that “if there is a halt to the airstrikes, then we can proceed to political negotiations”, making clear that their singular demand for the Saudi coalition is to end the bombings (Gambrell 2018). American arms sales have enabled both sides of the conflict to walk away from the negotiation table.

This upcoming election could mean life or death for millions of people in Yemen. In April of last year, President Donald Trump vetoed a bipartisan bill passed by Congress to end the US involvement in the Saudi intervention in Yemen, and he has made no indication that his stance has changed. On the other hand, despite the refusal of the Obama-Biden administration to take action in 2015 and 2016, Democratic nominee and former Vice President Joe Biden has committed to ending American support and involvement in Yemen, citing the disastrous humanitarian consequences.

It is rare for the United States to possess so much control over the direction of a foreign conflict. Make no mistake, America has the power to put an end to this conflict. It’s time for the leaders in power to stop messing around and use it.

References

Alasrar, Fatima Abo and Dafna Rand and Bruce Riedel. "U.S. Policy and the War in Yemen" The Brookings Institution. Falk Auditorium, Washington D.C. 25 Oct. 2018. Debate.

Al Jazeera. “Key facts about the war in Yemen.” Al Jazeera, 25 March 2015, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/03/25/key-facts-about-the-war-in-yemen/. Accessed 20 October 2020.

Bazzi, Mohamad. “The United States Could End the War in Yemen If It Wanted To.” The Atlantic, 30 September 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/iran-yemen-saudi-arabia/571465/. Accessed 20 October 2020.

Beaumont, Peter. “Death Toll in Yemen War Reaches 100,000.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 31 Oct. 2019, www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/31/death-toll-in-yemen-war-reaches-100000.

Blyman, Daniel L. “The U.S. “yellow light” in Yemen.” Order From Chaos, 2018. Brookings Institute, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/08/03/the-u-s-yellow-light-in-yemen/. Accessed 21 October 2020.

Caverley, Jonathan D. “Want to Punish Saudi Arabia? Cut Off Its Weapons Supply.” The New York Times, 12 October 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/opinion/saudi-arabia-arms-sales.html. Accessed 20 October 2020.

Gambrell, Jon. “Saudi coalition in Yemen, under pressure, ends US refueling.” The Associated Press, 10 November 2018, https://apnews.com/article/f1b4215927ec4f4a868c8c4fbb3079d0. Accessed 21 October 2020.

Guay, Terrence. “Arms sales to Saudi Arabia give Trump all the leverage he needs in Khashoggi affair.” The Conversation, 2018, https://theconversation.com/arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia-give-trump-all-the-leverage-he-needs-in-khashoggi-affair-104998. Accessed 21 October 2020.

McCarthy, Niall. “How The U.S. Fueled The Saudi War In Yemen.” Forbes, 21 November 2018, https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2018/11/21/how-the-u-s-fueled-the-saudi-war-in-yemen-infographic/#46b0799d1c68. Accessed 20 October 2020.

The United Nations. “Waiting to declare famine ‘will be too late for Yemenis on brink of starvation.’” U.N News, 2020, https://news.un.org/en/story/2020/07/1068101. Accessed 20 October 2020.

“Yemen Data Project.” 20 October 2020, https://www.yemendataproject.org/. Accessed 20 October 2020.