Gold, Guns, and Oil: What the Next Trump Presidency Could Mean for Sudan

By: Jenna Perrone

Completed March 2025

Photo by Goran Tomasevic/Reuters

Introduction

Weeks prior to his inauguration, President Donald Trump startled the international community with a series of controversial foreign policy proposals, including plans to annex Greenland, rename the Gulf of Mexico “the Gulf of America,” and incorporate Canada as the nation’s “51st state” (Sanger and Shear 2025). Several weeks into his presidency, tensions have only escalated with the imposition of strict tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, two of which immediately retaliated with their own duties (Boak et al. 2025). These developments raise significant concerns about the direction that U.S. foreign policy is headed in under Trump’s second administration. Nevertheless, for one African nation, Trump’s signature aggression on the international stage could prove to be highly beneficial.

Sudan has faced multiple conflicts over the years, most recently a bloody civil war that rapidly developed into the largest ongoing humanitarian crisis in the world (Lee 2025). In April 2023, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group led by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo, launched a military coup against the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (“Civil War in Sudan”). In the nearly two years since then, 12 million people have been displaced and millions more are in dire need of humanitarian aid amidst famine, sexual violence, and an ongoing genocide being perpetrated by the RSF (Hudson 2025, Lee 2025). 

With so much on the line, the Sudanese people require an especially bold world leader to fight for their security. Given his history of involvement in the region during his first term, as well as his ties to other players in the Sudanese Civil War, like Russia and China, Donald Trump appears to be exactly the person they are looking for. 

U.S.-Sudanese Relations

U.S.-Sudanese relations have seen significant developments in the past few years, most notably during Trump’s first presidency. From 1989 to 2019, Sudan was ruled by President Omar al-Bashir, a brutal dictator accused by the International Criminal Court of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. Amidst rising food and fuel prices beginning in late 2018, al-Bashir was ousted by his own military, sparking hopes of a democratic future for Sudan (“Omar al-Bashir”). American support for al-Bashir’s opposition was limited, largely due to Sudan’s place on a list of state sponsors of terrorism and its accompanying sanctions. Following the establishment of the new government, however, Trump fought to remove Sudan from that list, allowing for the first exchange of ambassadors between Washington and Khartoum in over two decades (Hudson 2025). 

With Ukraine and Israel dominating foreign policy concerns, U.S. attention quickly turned away from Sudan after Trump’s first term. In the words of Kholood Khair, founder of the Sudanese think tank Confluence Advisory, “Sudan never made it to Biden’s desk” (Rickett 2024). It was not until January 2025, days before the end of his term, that the Biden administration took any sort of meaningful action regarding Sudan. Back in December 2023, then-Secretary of State Antony Blinken accused the RSF of ethnic cleansing and war crimes. This past January, however, he escalated those accusations to that of a genocide targeting the non-Arab Masalit people in West Darfur. With this declaration came sanctions aimed at Hemedti and multiple RSF-owned businesses operating out of the UAE (Lee 2025, “Civil War in Sudan”). These sanctions have been difficult to enforce and far from sufficient in addressing the issue of the RSF, as is evidenced by recent RSF airstrikes targeting hospitals and a camp for internally displaced people (“UN Rights Chief”). With the death toll only rising, it is therefore necessary for President Trump to make Sudan a priority in the coming months. Negotiating a trade deal to provide aid and weapons to Sudan appears to be a promising path out of the war and famine currently gripping the nation, as well as a means for Trump to further his own foreign policy initiatives, like preventing economic gains for Russia, China, and Iran. 

Policy Proposal

Beyond the obvious humanitarian concerns in leaving the Sudan situation unresolved, Trump has much to gain through his involvement. Cameron Hudson, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, argues that allowing Sudan to be pulled further into civil war could result in the need to place them back on the state sponsors of terrorism list, a move that could only be described as humiliating for the Trump administration (Hudson 2025). Meanwhile, key U.S. rivals, such as Russia, China, and Iran, have profited heavily off of gold smuggling and weapons sales since the start of Sudan’s civil war, adding to the stakes of letting this conflict continue unchecked (Marks and Alamin 2024, Walsh 2024). It is thus in Trump’s best interest to pursue a resolution in Sudan, not only to bolster his reputation as a peacemaker, but also to prevent Russia, China, and Iran from growing richer at the expense of human life. 

Trump has already proven his reputation as an aggressive negotiator in Sudan during his first term. Just prior to removing Sudan’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, Trump’s Secretary of State at the time, Mike Pompeo, visited Sudan and implied that normalizing relations with Israel by signing the Abraham Accords was a necessary final step in the process (Hudson 2025). Desperately in need of the funds being removed from the terrorism list would provide, Sudan had no choice but to become the fourth Arab nation to recognize Israeli sovereignty. However, civil war broke out before a more permanent Sudanese government could be established to ratify the Accords, leaving the issue unresolved even years later (“Sudan Quietly”). In a social media post about the Gaza ceasefire from earlier this year, President Trump clarified he would like to use his second term to “expand the Historic Abraham Accords” (@realDonaldtrump). Negotiating a deal with the Sudanese government and the SAF to provide support in their fight against the RSF could prove to be a valuable opportunity for ensuring Sudan’s future ratification of the Accords. 

Moreover, by agreeing to provide Sudan with humanitarian aid and weapons, Trump has the chance to forge key economic ties with a nation rich in both oil and gold. One of Sudan’s biggest trade partners is currently China, which is actively selling drones to both the SAF and the RSF (“Sudan Exports”). Russia and Iran are also selling weapons to the SAF, while the UAE remains the main supplier of the RSF. U.S. involvement has the potential to turn the tide in favor of the SAF, putting a U.S. ally back in power in a key region of Africa and staving off complete control of the region by Russia and Iran, both of which are entertaining thoughts of building military bases in the area (Marks and Alamin 2024). 

Conclusion

With some of America’s closest allies feeling isolated and betrayed by the Trump administration’s threats and tariffs, there is no better time for forging new relationships and building upon the roots of diplomacy Trump planted in Sudan years ago during his first term. U.S. involvement in Sudan is undoubtedly a complex issue with the potential for countless negative outcomes. However, maintaining the status quo means an ongoing genocide and a war with no end in sight. Providing aid for the Sudanese people and weapons to be used against the RSF is a necessary step in developing U.S.-Sudanese relations and ensuring an end to the famine and systematic slaughter that have plagued Sudan since 2023, and for the people of Sudan, a second Trump presidency represents a slowly growing hope that a democratic future is not so far off after all.

The views expressed in this publication are the authors' own and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Rice Journal of Public Policy, its staff, or its Editorial Board.

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