Photo by Rodrigo Sura–EPA-EFE/Shutterstock.com
The country of El Salvador is shedding its reputation for gang violence and instability. The bloody Salvadoran Civil War, which ended in 1992, led hundreds of thousands of Salvadorans to seek refuge in the United States. A portion of these refugees formed gangs in Los Angeles, such as MS-13 and the 18th Street gang. When the temporary protection status of these immigrants expired under the Clinton administration, they were deported to El Salvador, where their gangs grew to dominate. El Salvador was the murder capital by 2015, and when Nayib Bukele was elected in 2019 with a minority in Congress, he was confronted with a difficult task.
Upon taking office, Bukele implemented aggressive measures to end corruption, address violence, and transform the economy, recognizing that drastic change was necessary. In the first 2 years of his presidency, rates of gang violence dropped, with U.S. officials suggesting that he negotiated with gang leaders, although Bukele denies these claims. His popularity as a result of lowered rates of violence helped his party win a supermajority in 2021. Emboldened by the election results, his administration continued to make radical changes, such as dismissing Supreme Court judges and the Attorney General. A crime spike in 2022 led Bukele to declare a state of emergency, suspending constitutional rights indefinitely as the military went on to make more than 75,000 arrests in the War on Gangs, packing criminals into a mega-prison called the Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT). This type of policy is emblematic of the controversial “mano dura” or firm hand, an approach attempted in El Salvador multiple times to combat gang violence without success, as critics argue that it fails to address root causes of gang membership and violence: poverty, inequality, and lack of opportunity. However, Bukele’s recent crackdown has transformed El Salvador into one of the safest nations in Latin America, significantly reducing the homicide rate and allowing residents to feel safer. At the same time, Bukele has received international criticism for undermining El Salvador’s democracy and chalking up human rights violations as ‘collateral damage’ in his administration's crackdown on gang activities.
There is an inherent contrast of opinions on Bukele’s policies; although he faces attacks from politicians, human rights groups, and international media, he remains extremely popular among citizens in El Salvador with a 92% approval rating in 2024. Actions such as his declaration of a state of emergency have yielded results that receive scrutiny and criticism, but also great praise. Bukele has worked to strengthen El Salvador economically and socially, with investment into anti-poverty strategies and public works, applying an approach that he took back in his first mayoral position in Nuevo Cuscatlán from 2012 to 2015. Innovative approaches––such as being the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender––reflect a commitment to moving El Salvador towards a strengthened position in the global economy. Additionally, these measures are part of an investment to support the durability of the anti-violence campaign. Making El Salvador safe for residents and visitors, even temporarily, is a great achievement, but the Bukele administration continues to face the question: “Will it last?”
In terms of long-term democratic values, Bukele has set a poor precedent for El Salvador with his commitment to staying in power. He threatened the legislative assembly with the military occupation of the parliament building to pass his crime bills in 2020. While the state of emergency was officially declared for the war on gangs, it has also been used to oust Supreme Court justices and unconstitutionally reinterpret election laws so that Bukele could run for a second time. It is this type of action, alongside concerning statements from Bukele, that set an alarming precedent for the future of his governance. Bukele’s administration has pushed back against these criticisms by highlighting the useful changes that have come and pointing out that El Salvador’s democracy had been extremely weak or nonexistent before his administration.
The political success of Bukele's strong-arm tactics in El Salvador is influencing leaders across Latin America to adopt similar approaches in their fight against crime. Recently, Ecuador’s President Daniel Noboa declared his own state of emergency, applying a firm hand to tackle lawlessness in his country. Mexican presidential candidate Xótchil Gálvez has proposed a more active fight against cartel violence. This mano dura approach may soon become used by other nations in Latin America, but it is important to understand that each nation faces unique circumstances. Bukele’s success with the mano dura approach is making headlines, but to ensure sustainability, he will need to overcome expected stagnation, implement rehabilitative approaches to incarceration, and avoid sending El Salvador down an authoritarian path. While President Bukele's mano dura policies have temporarily reshaped El Salvador, the true test will be long-term, regarding the ability to maintain long-term safety, stability, and democracy. El Salvador’s long-term results will set a precedent in the fight for prosperity in Latin America.
The views expressed in this publication are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the position of The Rice Journal of Public Policy, its staff, or its Editorial Board.